I question those who believed she doomed a further run for the Presidency. Yes, she may be viewed as a quitter. But if McCain had won in November she would of quit then. Secondly, did not Obama and Biden "quit" their jobs as Senators?
Would a year and half more in the Governor do her more good? Those who dismissed Alaska as a small state before would not have been impressed if she had 2 full terms. Already she has done more than Obama had done when he ran for the Presidency.
Of course, she may just want to play with a role like Newt Gingrich, providing support other candidates in their campaigns.
The biggest clue to her future is the need of her opponents to still try knock her down. If she wasn't a further threat, they would just leave her alone. No, they are afraid of combining her popularity with the growing TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party movement. A populist charismatic conservative female frightens the liberal "Women's Movement".
My prediction, should Cap and Trade pass this year, the effects on job losses and higher bills will be noticeable by 2011. If global temperature continue to decline despite China building a new coal plant a week and India's increasing C02 output, Palin will be good position for a run.
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Why Palin's Resignation Make Sense.
As I started to write this, I have decided that Palin has made an excellent decision.
If she is being blocked in Alaska government with spurious ethics charges (15-0) and her opponents will prevent her agenda from succeeding, then staying on an additional year and a half would do her no good nor the state any good. If she did not plan to run for another term leaving now gives her successor (which I assume she believes will follow the same agenda as hers) will give him a better chance in winning the next election.
If she is spending 80% her time fighting ethics charges, and it is costing the State millions to investigate and her family $500K to fight, then it makes little sense to continue on. Her opponents will say she quit because of this and of course it will make a great 30 second ad. Had she wished just to remain the governor for another term, it would have shown politically weakness. But if she already decided not to seek another term, then it makes sense to leave now.
If pundits are right, she can make $50K to $100K a speech. These could help pay-off her legal defense bills. Leaving also limits the amount of new spurious ethics charges. If she plans to run for President, then she can build the funds necessary for a run. Giving the current situation, remaining as Governor just hamstrings her. She will now be able to freely leave the state and campaign for others.
It also allows her to spend more time with her family. Something that must be appreciated if she does run for President (2 years running, 8 years governing).
I suspect that the building of the Alaskan gas pipeline through Canada will have started by 2014. This will give her a big boost for a 2016 election bid. Six years of campaigning on a national level could give her a strong base.
It is also possible that the Democrats will mess things up so bad that Obama will be seen as defeat-able in 2012. If she campaigns for congressional candidates in 2010 and has an impact on the races, she could be in great position for 2012.
If she is being blocked in Alaska government with spurious ethics charges (15-0) and her opponents will prevent her agenda from succeeding, then staying on an additional year and a half would do her no good nor the state any good. If she did not plan to run for another term leaving now gives her successor (which I assume she believes will follow the same agenda as hers) will give him a better chance in winning the next election.
If she is spending 80% her time fighting ethics charges, and it is costing the State millions to investigate and her family $500K to fight, then it makes little sense to continue on. Her opponents will say she quit because of this and of course it will make a great 30 second ad. Had she wished just to remain the governor for another term, it would have shown politically weakness. But if she already decided not to seek another term, then it makes sense to leave now.
If pundits are right, she can make $50K to $100K a speech. These could help pay-off her legal defense bills. Leaving also limits the amount of new spurious ethics charges. If she plans to run for President, then she can build the funds necessary for a run. Giving the current situation, remaining as Governor just hamstrings her. She will now be able to freely leave the state and campaign for others.
It also allows her to spend more time with her family. Something that must be appreciated if she does run for President (2 years running, 8 years governing).
I suspect that the building of the Alaskan gas pipeline through Canada will have started by 2014. This will give her a big boost for a 2016 election bid. Six years of campaigning on a national level could give her a strong base.
It is also possible that the Democrats will mess things up so bad that Obama will be seen as defeat-able in 2012. If she campaigns for congressional candidates in 2010 and has an impact on the races, she could be in great position for 2012.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Campaign donations
48% of Obama's campaign donations came from donors of $1,000 or more, compared with 56% for John Kerry and 60% for Bush and McCain. Obama campaign said the campaign had 3.95 million donors and 91% where contributions of $100 or less. The difference is that many people gave numerous small donations.
Monday, November 17, 2008
How Obama Got Elected... Interviews With Obama Voters
link
Results to 12 simple Multiple Choice Questions
57.4% could NOT correctly say which party controls congress (50/50 shot just by guessing)
81.8% could NOT correctly say Joe Biden quit a previous campaign because of plagiarism (25% chance by guessing)
82.6% could NOT correctly say that Barack Obama won his first election by getting opponents kicked off the ballot (25% chance by guessing)
88.4% could NOT correctly say that Obama said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket (25% chance by guessing)
56.1% could NOT correctly say Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground (25% chance by guessing).
poll results
Monday, November 10, 2008
Interesting Side Notes on the Election
People voting for tax cuts.
More people believed that they would benefit more from Obama's tax cuts than McCain. Bush I lost to Clinton because he raised taxes and Clinton promised a middle class tax cut. Since Reagan it appears that the candidate the proposes the most tax cuts wins.
People appear to be voting against military service.
Obama - None, McCain - Vietnam Vet
Bush II - National Guard - Kerry -Vietnam Vet
Bush II - National Guard - Gore - Army Vietnam
Clinton - Dodge Draft - Dole - WWII Vet
Clinton - Dodge Draft - Bush I - WWII Vet
More people believed that they would benefit more from Obama's tax cuts than McCain. Bush I lost to Clinton because he raised taxes and Clinton promised a middle class tax cut. Since Reagan it appears that the candidate the proposes the most tax cuts wins.
People appear to be voting against military service.
Obama - None, McCain - Vietnam Vet
Bush II - National Guard - Kerry -Vietnam Vet
Bush II - National Guard - Gore - Army Vietnam
Clinton - Dodge Draft - Dole - WWII Vet
Clinton - Dodge Draft - Bush I - WWII Vet
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Wisdom of the Crowd - Part 3
Ok, we didn't do so good. As you can see there was no Bradley effect. If there ever was one, we should just say it was bad polling.
Obama By:
Poll / Actual
Florida 1.8 / 3%
N. Carolina -0.4 / 0%
Missouri -0.7 / 0%
Indiana -1.4 / 1%
Georgia -4 / -6%
Virgiinia 4.4 / 5%
Ohio 2.5 / 4%
Colorado 5.5 / 8%
Nevada 6.8 / 13%
Pennsylvania 7.3 / 11%
Obama By:
Poll / Actual
Florida 1.8 / 3%
N. Carolina -0.4 / 0%
Missouri -0.7 / 0%
Indiana -1.4 / 1%
Georgia -4 / -6%
Virgiinia 4.4 / 5%
Ohio 2.5 / 4%
Colorado 5.5 / 8%
Nevada 6.8 / 13%
Pennsylvania 7.3 / 11%
Poll Results
IS OBAMA A ?
Moderate Democrat 46%, (7/15)
Socialist 26%, (4/15)
Liberal Democrat 20% (3/15)
Very Liberal Democrat 6% (1/15)
Moderate Democrat 46%, (7/15)
Socialist 26%, (4/15)
Liberal Democrat 20% (3/15)
Very Liberal Democrat 6% (1/15)
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
The Obama Election
Well, the tabla-rosa that is Obama has been elected. Let us hope for the best for the U.S. for the next two years.
The good news for the Republicans is that appear to keep control of the filibuster.
As the liberals take complete control of government it will be interesting to watch. Clinton was a moderate Democrat with a Republican congress. Carter had to deal with conservative democrats from the South.
It will be interesting how Obama and Democrats will deal with the war on terrorism. Will Obama go into Pakistan (without permission) like he said he would or will he just pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Will the Bush derangement syndrome end or will they still blame everything on him for the next eight years?
Good things about an Obama Election
First, public financing is dead. No one will accept public financing again.
Possibly, affirmative-action will expire and the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton will disappear.
Bad Things:
Earmark reform is dead. Expect even more money spent on "special" projects.
Protecting the border is dead. But then again, more cheaper labor for farms.
Things to watch out for.
(1) Secret ballot for unions eliminated.
(2) Silencing of critics on the radio, through an "equal-balance" law.
The good news for the Republicans is that appear to keep control of the filibuster.
As the liberals take complete control of government it will be interesting to watch. Clinton was a moderate Democrat with a Republican congress. Carter had to deal with conservative democrats from the South.
It will be interesting how Obama and Democrats will deal with the war on terrorism. Will Obama go into Pakistan (without permission) like he said he would or will he just pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Will the Bush derangement syndrome end or will they still blame everything on him for the next eight years?
Good things about an Obama Election
First, public financing is dead. No one will accept public financing again.
Possibly, affirmative-action will expire and the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton will disappear.
Bad Things:
Earmark reform is dead. Expect even more money spent on "special" projects.
Protecting the border is dead. But then again, more cheaper labor for farms.
Things to watch out for.
(1) Secret ballot for unions eliminated.
(2) Silencing of critics on the radio, through an "equal-balance" law.
Voted Today
The wait was about 5 minutes from entering. I feel sorry for all those who waited hours in line in early voting to avoid lines today.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Palin cleared by Alaska panel in ethics probe
link
"Alaska Gov. and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin was cleared on Monday of wrongdoing in an abuse-of-power investigation into the firing of the state's public safety commissioner.
The Alaska Personnel Board report, issued on the eve of the U.S. presidential election, ran contrary to findings from a legislative inquiry that concluded in October that Palin had abused the power of her office by pressuring subordinates to fire a state trooper involved in a feud with her family."
"Alaska Gov. and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin was cleared on Monday of wrongdoing in an abuse-of-power investigation into the firing of the state's public safety commissioner.
The Alaska Personnel Board report, issued on the eve of the U.S. presidential election, ran contrary to findings from a legislative inquiry that concluded in October that Palin had abused the power of her office by pressuring subordinates to fire a state trooper involved in a feud with her family."
Wisdom of the Crowd Part 2
Taking our 4-5% ajdustment and margin of error and using Real Clear Politics here are the results.
Obama 238, McCain 227, Toss Up 73
Obama 238, McCain 227, Toss Up 73
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Did Obama Just Lose the Election?
Ohio and Pennsylvania are huge coal markets. Coal produces most of our electricity. Bankrupting coal plants means higher energy costs. So do you think this might have an effect on the election?
Obama: "So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted."
link
link
Update:
Well, ABC and NBC Nightly News ignored it. So it probably will not make a difference.
Obama: "So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted."
link
link
Update:
Well, ABC and NBC Nightly News ignored it. So it probably will not make a difference.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The words of Obama.
"We have done everything that has been asks of us under the FCC guidelines." Obama.
What he doesn't say, is that, although used by Clinton and McCain, he doesn't check to see that name of his donor matches the address. What he doesn't say is that money can be funneled into his campaign from illegal donors. He hasn't listed the name all the donors, just the ones required by the FCC. He doesn't tell you that some can get buy a debit card with cash, thus skating the total limit a person can donate to his campaign.
What he doesn't say, is that, although used by Clinton and McCain, he doesn't check to see that name of his donor matches the address. What he doesn't say is that money can be funneled into his campaign from illegal donors. He hasn't listed the name all the donors, just the ones required by the FCC. He doesn't tell you that some can get buy a debit card with cash, thus skating the total limit a person can donate to his campaign.
Former Democratic Speech Writer To Vote For McCain
link
"A speechwriter for Obama, Edwards, and Clinton on why she’s voting McCain."
"I can no longer justify what this party has done and can’t dismiss the treatment of women and working people as just part of the new kind of politics. It’s wrong and someone has to say that. And also say that the Democratic Party’s talking points—that Senator John McCain is just four more years of the same and that he’s President Bush—are now just hooker lines that fit a very effective and perhaps wave-winning political argument…doesn’t mean they’re true. After all, he is the only one who’s worked in a bipartisan way on big challenges."
"A speechwriter for Obama, Edwards, and Clinton on why she’s voting McCain."
"I can no longer justify what this party has done and can’t dismiss the treatment of women and working people as just part of the new kind of politics. It’s wrong and someone has to say that. And also say that the Democratic Party’s talking points—that Senator John McCain is just four more years of the same and that he’s President Bush—are now just hooker lines that fit a very effective and perhaps wave-winning political argument…doesn’t mean they’re true. After all, he is the only one who’s worked in a bipartisan way on big challenges."
Minor Notes
al Qaeda supports the Democrats in a video
According to Time magazine, the campaign is hiding Biden
According to Time magazine, the campaign is hiding Biden
Media Bias - Obama
link
"For Obama during this period, just over a third of the stories were clearly positive in tone (36%), while a similar number (35%) were neutral or mixed. A smaller number (29%) were negative.
For McCain, by comparison, nearly six in ten of the stories studied were decidedly negative in nature (57%), while fewer than two in ten (14%) were positive. "
"Coverage of Obama began in the negative after the conventions, but the tone switched with the changing direction of the polls. The most positive stories about him were those that were most political—the ones focused on polling, the electoral map, and tactics."
"
• MSNBC stood out for having less negative coverage of Obama than the press generally (14% of stories vs. 29% in the press overall) and for having more negative stories about McCain (73% of its coverage vs. 57% in the press overall).
• On Fox, in contrast, coverage of Obama was more negative than the norm (40% of stories vs. 29% overall) and less positive (25% of stories vs. 36% generally). For McCain, the news channel was somewhat more positive (22% vs. 14% in the press overall) and substantially less negative (40% vs. 57% in the press overall). Yet even here, his negative stories outweighed positive ones by almost 2 to 1.
"
link
"For Obama during this period, just over a third of the stories were clearly positive in tone (36%), while a similar number (35%) were neutral or mixed. A smaller number (29%) were negative.
For McCain, by comparison, nearly six in ten of the stories studied were decidedly negative in nature (57%), while fewer than two in ten (14%) were positive. "
"Coverage of Obama began in the negative after the conventions, but the tone switched with the changing direction of the polls. The most positive stories about him were those that were most political—the ones focused on polling, the electoral map, and tactics."
"
• MSNBC stood out for having less negative coverage of Obama than the press generally (14% of stories vs. 29% in the press overall) and for having more negative stories about McCain (73% of its coverage vs. 57% in the press overall).
• On Fox, in contrast, coverage of Obama was more negative than the norm (40% of stories vs. 29% overall) and less positive (25% of stories vs. 36% generally). For McCain, the news channel was somewhat more positive (22% vs. 14% in the press overall) and substantially less negative (40% vs. 57% in the press overall). Yet even here, his negative stories outweighed positive ones by almost 2 to 1.
"
link
Media Bias? Palin
link
"The study found that ABC, NBC and CBS ran a total of 69 stories on Palin. Two were deemed positive, 37 negative and 30 neutral. None of the evening news shows ran a positive story about Palin.
Twenty-one stories portrayed Palin as unintelligent and unqualified, 14 characterized her as John McCain's attack dog and nine emphasized attacks on Palin by conservatives."
"The study found that ABC, NBC and CBS ran a total of 69 stories on Palin. Two were deemed positive, 37 negative and 30 neutral. None of the evening news shows ran a positive story about Palin.
Twenty-one stories portrayed Palin as unintelligent and unqualified, 14 characterized her as John McCain's attack dog and nine emphasized attacks on Palin by conservatives."
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