A look at the future. Part One.

Looking at the current polls, the Democrats money advantage and the support of the mainstream media, it is likely that Obama will win this election. It is also possible the Democrats will have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate along with control of the House. So what will happen over the next few years.

Energy

(1) There will be no new oil drilling in Alaska or off-the coasts.
(2) There will be no new nuclear power plants built.
(3) There will be no new coal plants built.

Oil companies, hit buy rising taxes, will produce less domestically, thus increasing dependence on foreign oil. This will stunt the economy as everything the economy begins to grow the price of to oil will increase.

Travel

To prevent global warming and to reduce oil imports, the government will re-instate the 55 MPH speed limit.
They will implement a $1 per gallon increase in gasoline taxes. They money will go to support public transportation and to reduce usage.


Health Care

There will be a battle between full socialized medicine and Obama health care plan. Health care costs increase as more people enter the system and demand better care than they currently are getting. A few years after implementation, health care rationing begins. Doctor shortages begin has less American enter the medical care system and less foreign doctors want to come to the U.S..


Military.

Possible scenarios

(1) Obama goes with his original promises and pulls all the troops out within a couple of months. Kurds declared Independence. Sunni and Shite factions fight for control of territory. Possible outcomes: (1) Iraq split into 3 section as proposed by Joe Biden (2) Iraq turns into a Lebanon with some power sharing and fighting breaking out every so often (3) Iraq turns to theocracy, akin Taliban or Iran. (4) Iraq turns into a strong central government, akin Saddam Hussein, (5) Baghdad turns into a strong governable city, while outlying regions turn into chaos, akin Afghanistan.

(2) Obama retains the current policy.

(3) Obama tries to prove he can get Osama Bin Laden and orders massive invasion into the Afghanistan. Possible scenarios (1) They destroy the Taliban and Al Qaeda (2) They face massive resistant, akin Soviet Union, and we get bogged down in a Vietnam style war. (3) They attack Pakistan in a way that upsets the populace beyond what the government can control. This builds massive support for Al Qaeda type groups and Pakistan withdraws what little support it is now giving.

Jobs

Jobs will increase in areas of alternative energy production, wind and solar and utility lines to move the energy to the cities. Public sector jobs and construction jobs increase where the government pays for it, i.e. roads and bridges, as the government will try to stimulate the economy. Oil jobs will decrease as the companies downsize because of the punitive taxes. Small business jobs will decrease because people are less likely to risk capital with more risk and less gains. Depending on the success of the bank bailout, capital will either be tight or non-existent. The low-interest loans that fueled the housing bubble and dot.com bubbles will dry up.

Interest Rates

It is possible that government will face higher costs on the debt. This will decrease the amount the government can spend on other things.

Housing

The democrats will try to get the banks to reduce the value of the loans to the poor - either through interest rate reductions or principal owed. This will reduce the amount the banks will be able to loan to other people.