Looking for a recovering economy in the next few months? Don't bet on it.
First, there are the bond investors, with the takeover of the banks, Chrysler and General Motors by the government, do not expect many to buy bonds from any company that may become a target of the government.
Second, government debt. With the increase of government debt, do not expect any company to borrowing money with short term debt. If the economy recovers, most experts believe interest rates will skyrocket. Therefore, any company borrowing money for expansion would be wise to borrow in such a manner as to not expose them to borrowing money at a cost they couldn't repay. Therefore, companies will be shy to expand on borrowed funds.
Third, cap-and-trade. Cap and trade, if passed, will increase electricity costs. India has already said it will not impose C02 restrictions. China is also not likely too. So if a company is going to expand, if it can, it will expand to those countries. Thus reducing jobs in the U.S. and delaying or reducing any recovery.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Thursday, October 30, 2008
New Polls
Do you believe Obama will be able to push his tax cuts through the Democratic congress? Will the Democrats lower the threshold, ala Clinton, at which higher rates will be paid.
On the total income question, include payroll, income, state and sales taxes.
On the total income question, include payroll, income, state and sales taxes.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
A look into the future. Part Two.
Predicting the future is a dangerous game. If 9/11 had not happened, Bush's presidency would have been a lot different. Without Katrina, his popularity and thus his governing power, might have been much increased.
If McCain is elected he will face a democratic controlled House and Senate. He might have enough votes in the Senate to sustain a veto.
Energy
I would suspect a compromise bill would be passed, with lots of subsidies from wind and solar energy projects. I expect oil drilling on the coasts to begin in 18 to 35 months. Building would begin on the Alaska natural gas pipeline through Canada . 40 nuclear power plants would begin building in 24-36 months.
Jobs
(1) Increase jobs in all energy fronts.
(2) Increase jobs for those running the plants. Nuclear engineers, etc.
Health Care
In the first 100 days, the insurance tax credit would pass. The self-insured would have more money in their pockets. Those uninsured could afford a basic insurance policy. Most of those insured would not see any increase in taxes. More insured would put a temporary strain on the health care system, but would also provide an incentive for more people to enter the field and for foreign medical personal to come to the U.S.
Military
Would basically maintain the present course of action. Troops would gradually be pulled from Iraq if it remains relatively stable.
Spending
Earmarks would have to go the appropriation process, possible eliminating 50% of them.
If McCain is elected he will face a democratic controlled House and Senate. He might have enough votes in the Senate to sustain a veto.
Energy
I would suspect a compromise bill would be passed, with lots of subsidies from wind and solar energy projects. I expect oil drilling on the coasts to begin in 18 to 35 months. Building would begin on the Alaska natural gas pipeline through Canada . 40 nuclear power plants would begin building in 24-36 months.
Jobs
(1) Increase jobs in all energy fronts.
(2) Increase jobs for those running the plants. Nuclear engineers, etc.
Health Care
In the first 100 days, the insurance tax credit would pass. The self-insured would have more money in their pockets. Those uninsured could afford a basic insurance policy. Most of those insured would not see any increase in taxes. More insured would put a temporary strain on the health care system, but would also provide an incentive for more people to enter the field and for foreign medical personal to come to the U.S.
Military
Would basically maintain the present course of action. Troops would gradually be pulled from Iraq if it remains relatively stable.
Spending
Earmarks would have to go the appropriation process, possible eliminating 50% of them.
A look at the future. Part One.
Looking at the current polls, the Democrats money advantage and the support of the mainstream media, it is likely that Obama will win this election. It is also possible the Democrats will have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate along with control of the House. So what will happen over the next few years.
Energy
(1) There will be no new oil drilling in Alaska or off-the coasts.
(2) There will be no new nuclear power plants built.
(3) There will be no new coal plants built.
Oil companies, hit buy rising taxes, will produce less domestically, thus increasing dependence on foreign oil. This will stunt the economy as everything the economy begins to grow the price of to oil will increase.
Travel
To prevent global warming and to reduce oil imports, the government will re-instate the 55 MPH speed limit.
They will implement a $1 per gallon increase in gasoline taxes. They money will go to support public transportation and to reduce usage.
Health Care
There will be a battle between full socialized medicine and Obama health care plan. Health care costs increase as more people enter the system and demand better care than they currently are getting. A few years after implementation, health care rationing begins. Doctor shortages begin has less American enter the medical care system and less foreign doctors want to come to the U.S..
Military.
Possible scenarios
(1) Obama goes with his original promises and pulls all the troops out within a couple of months. Kurds declared Independence. Sunni and Shite factions fight for control of territory. Possible outcomes: (1) Iraq split into 3 section as proposed by Joe Biden (2) Iraq turns into a Lebanon with some power sharing and fighting breaking out every so often (3) Iraq turns to theocracy, akin Taliban or Iran. (4) Iraq turns into a strong central government, akin Saddam Hussein, (5) Baghdad turns into a strong governable city, while outlying regions turn into chaos, akin Afghanistan.
(2) Obama retains the current policy.
(3) Obama tries to prove he can get Osama Bin Laden and orders massive invasion into the Afghanistan. Possible scenarios (1) They destroy the Taliban and Al Qaeda (2) They face massive resistant, akin Soviet Union, and we get bogged down in a Vietnam style war. (3) They attack Pakistan in a way that upsets the populace beyond what the government can control. This builds massive support for Al Qaeda type groups and Pakistan withdraws what little support it is now giving.
Jobs
Jobs will increase in areas of alternative energy production, wind and solar and utility lines to move the energy to the cities. Public sector jobs and construction jobs increase where the government pays for it, i.e. roads and bridges, as the government will try to stimulate the economy. Oil jobs will decrease as the companies downsize because of the punitive taxes. Small business jobs will decrease because people are less likely to risk capital with more risk and less gains. Depending on the success of the bank bailout, capital will either be tight or non-existent. The low-interest loans that fueled the housing bubble and dot.com bubbles will dry up.
Interest Rates
It is possible that government will face higher costs on the debt. This will decrease the amount the government can spend on other things.
Housing
The democrats will try to get the banks to reduce the value of the loans to the poor - either through interest rate reductions or principal owed. This will reduce the amount the banks will be able to loan to other people.
Energy
(1) There will be no new oil drilling in Alaska or off-the coasts.
(2) There will be no new nuclear power plants built.
(3) There will be no new coal plants built.
Oil companies, hit buy rising taxes, will produce less domestically, thus increasing dependence on foreign oil. This will stunt the economy as everything the economy begins to grow the price of to oil will increase.
Travel
To prevent global warming and to reduce oil imports, the government will re-instate the 55 MPH speed limit.
They will implement a $1 per gallon increase in gasoline taxes. They money will go to support public transportation and to reduce usage.
Health Care
There will be a battle between full socialized medicine and Obama health care plan. Health care costs increase as more people enter the system and demand better care than they currently are getting. A few years after implementation, health care rationing begins. Doctor shortages begin has less American enter the medical care system and less foreign doctors want to come to the U.S..
Military.
Possible scenarios
(1) Obama goes with his original promises and pulls all the troops out within a couple of months. Kurds declared Independence. Sunni and Shite factions fight for control of territory. Possible outcomes: (1) Iraq split into 3 section as proposed by Joe Biden (2) Iraq turns into a Lebanon with some power sharing and fighting breaking out every so often (3) Iraq turns to theocracy, akin Taliban or Iran. (4) Iraq turns into a strong central government, akin Saddam Hussein, (5) Baghdad turns into a strong governable city, while outlying regions turn into chaos, akin Afghanistan.
(2) Obama retains the current policy.
(3) Obama tries to prove he can get Osama Bin Laden and orders massive invasion into the Afghanistan. Possible scenarios (1) They destroy the Taliban and Al Qaeda (2) They face massive resistant, akin Soviet Union, and we get bogged down in a Vietnam style war. (3) They attack Pakistan in a way that upsets the populace beyond what the government can control. This builds massive support for Al Qaeda type groups and Pakistan withdraws what little support it is now giving.
Jobs
Jobs will increase in areas of alternative energy production, wind and solar and utility lines to move the energy to the cities. Public sector jobs and construction jobs increase where the government pays for it, i.e. roads and bridges, as the government will try to stimulate the economy. Oil jobs will decrease as the companies downsize because of the punitive taxes. Small business jobs will decrease because people are less likely to risk capital with more risk and less gains. Depending on the success of the bank bailout, capital will either be tight or non-existent. The low-interest loans that fueled the housing bubble and dot.com bubbles will dry up.
Interest Rates
It is possible that government will face higher costs on the debt. This will decrease the amount the government can spend on other things.
Housing
The democrats will try to get the banks to reduce the value of the loans to the poor - either through interest rate reductions or principal owed. This will reduce the amount the banks will be able to loan to other people.
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