However McCain was cleared of any improper action.
"The Senate Ethics Committee ruled that the involvement of Glenn in the scheme was minimal, and the charges against him were dropped.He was only criticized by the Committee for "poor judgment."The Ethics Committee ruled that the involvement of McCain in the scheme was also minimal, and he too was cleared of all charges against him. McCain was criticized by the Committee for exercising "poor judgment" when he met with the federal regulators on Keating's behalf. The report also said that McCain's "actions were not improper nor attended with gross negligence and did not reach the level of requiring institutional action against him....Senator McCain has violated no law of the United States or specific Rule of the United States Senate."
"The Senate Ethics Committee ruled that Riegle and DeConcini had acted improperly by interfering with the investigation by the FHLBB"
"The Senate Ethics Committee ruled that Cranston had acted improperly by interfering with the investigation by the FHLBB"
link
Monday, October 6, 2008
McCain Fights Back
His new stump speech is attacking Obama for aiding and abetting the crisis at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Pointed out that Obama will not tell how much is increased spending will be ($850 billion estimate). Attacked Obama for earmark spending, including a $3 million for a projector for a planetarium, of which the chairman pledge to raise $200,000 for Obama's campaign. He chided Obama for not releasing his donor list, over $200 million. Already Obama has returned illegal donations for foreign sources, like Palestinians.
"Obama campaign officials said a trio of Palestinian brothers in the Middle East attempted last year to make $33,000 in illegal donations to the campaign via the internet." link
"Obama campaign officials said a trio of Palestinian brothers in the Middle East attempted last year to make $33,000 in illegal donations to the campaign via the internet." link
DON'T PANIC
A couple of things to remember, the hedge funds are having to sell assets, putting downward pressure on the markets. Europe and Asian markets have also fallen. But so has the priced of oil, if Donald Trump is right, it might fall to $20 a barrel. Lower oil prices will put more money in the people's pockets. The dollar is at a year high versus the dollar. If you have cash, you are relative richer. If you have stocks, you are relatively poorer.
The banks are still hesitant to lend, so it will take a while for the economy to recover. If you don't think the economy will recover, I suggest you buy gold, guns and bullets. For myself, I believe the economy will recover in a few years. If you have a five to ten year horizon, you should recover the value of most of your stocks. If you dollar cost average now, you will be buying stocks cheaply.
The banks are still hesitant to lend, so it will take a while for the economy to recover. If you don't think the economy will recover, I suggest you buy gold, guns and bullets. For myself, I believe the economy will recover in a few years. If you have a five to ten year horizon, you should recover the value of most of your stocks. If you dollar cost average now, you will be buying stocks cheaply.
Do not be surprised by a stock sell-off.
As the likelihood of Obama being elected increases, do not be surprised by a sell-off in the stock market. Those with positive long positions in the market. who might want to sell in the the next 4-8 years, will be selling stocks. There are two reasons, the first is to offset loses. The second is to avoid an increase in the capital gain taxes. It would make sense for them to sell now and buy back after 30 days (wash sale rule). The savings of 5 or 10% in taxes might offset any possible rise the value of the stocks, especially in the current economic climate.
Should Obama be elected, there might be a further sell-off. Those waiting to move losses to the next year might wait to 2009, hoping the the capital gain tax increases will not be made retroactive.
Should Obama be elected, there might be a further sell-off. Those waiting to move losses to the next year might wait to 2009, hoping the the capital gain tax increases will not be made retroactive.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
A look into the future. Part Two.
Predicting the future is a dangerous game. If 9/11 had not happened, Bush's presidency would have been a lot different. Without Katrina, his popularity and thus his governing power, might have been much increased.
If McCain is elected he will face a democratic controlled House and Senate. He might have enough votes in the Senate to sustain a veto.
Energy
I would suspect a compromise bill would be passed, with lots of subsidies from wind and solar energy projects. I expect oil drilling on the coasts to begin in 18 to 35 months. Building would begin on the Alaska natural gas pipeline through Canada . 40 nuclear power plants would begin building in 24-36 months.
Jobs
(1) Increase jobs in all energy fronts.
(2) Increase jobs for those running the plants. Nuclear engineers, etc.
Health Care
In the first 100 days, the insurance tax credit would pass. The self-insured would have more money in their pockets. Those uninsured could afford a basic insurance policy. Most of those insured would not see any increase in taxes. More insured would put a temporary strain on the health care system, but would also provide an incentive for more people to enter the field and for foreign medical personal to come to the U.S.
Military
Would basically maintain the present course of action. Troops would gradually be pulled from Iraq if it remains relatively stable.
Spending
Earmarks would have to go the appropriation process, possible eliminating 50% of them.
If McCain is elected he will face a democratic controlled House and Senate. He might have enough votes in the Senate to sustain a veto.
Energy
I would suspect a compromise bill would be passed, with lots of subsidies from wind and solar energy projects. I expect oil drilling on the coasts to begin in 18 to 35 months. Building would begin on the Alaska natural gas pipeline through Canada . 40 nuclear power plants would begin building in 24-36 months.
Jobs
(1) Increase jobs in all energy fronts.
(2) Increase jobs for those running the plants. Nuclear engineers, etc.
Health Care
In the first 100 days, the insurance tax credit would pass. The self-insured would have more money in their pockets. Those uninsured could afford a basic insurance policy. Most of those insured would not see any increase in taxes. More insured would put a temporary strain on the health care system, but would also provide an incentive for more people to enter the field and for foreign medical personal to come to the U.S.
Military
Would basically maintain the present course of action. Troops would gradually be pulled from Iraq if it remains relatively stable.
Spending
Earmarks would have to go the appropriation process, possible eliminating 50% of them.
A look at the future. Part One.
Looking at the current polls, the Democrats money advantage and the support of the mainstream media, it is likely that Obama will win this election. It is also possible the Democrats will have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate along with control of the House. So what will happen over the next few years.
Energy
(1) There will be no new oil drilling in Alaska or off-the coasts.
(2) There will be no new nuclear power plants built.
(3) There will be no new coal plants built.
Oil companies, hit buy rising taxes, will produce less domestically, thus increasing dependence on foreign oil. This will stunt the economy as everything the economy begins to grow the price of to oil will increase.
Travel
To prevent global warming and to reduce oil imports, the government will re-instate the 55 MPH speed limit.
They will implement a $1 per gallon increase in gasoline taxes. They money will go to support public transportation and to reduce usage.
Health Care
There will be a battle between full socialized medicine and Obama health care plan. Health care costs increase as more people enter the system and demand better care than they currently are getting. A few years after implementation, health care rationing begins. Doctor shortages begin has less American enter the medical care system and less foreign doctors want to come to the U.S..
Military.
Possible scenarios
(1) Obama goes with his original promises and pulls all the troops out within a couple of months. Kurds declared Independence. Sunni and Shite factions fight for control of territory. Possible outcomes: (1) Iraq split into 3 section as proposed by Joe Biden (2) Iraq turns into a Lebanon with some power sharing and fighting breaking out every so often (3) Iraq turns to theocracy, akin Taliban or Iran. (4) Iraq turns into a strong central government, akin Saddam Hussein, (5) Baghdad turns into a strong governable city, while outlying regions turn into chaos, akin Afghanistan.
(2) Obama retains the current policy.
(3) Obama tries to prove he can get Osama Bin Laden and orders massive invasion into the Afghanistan. Possible scenarios (1) They destroy the Taliban and Al Qaeda (2) They face massive resistant, akin Soviet Union, and we get bogged down in a Vietnam style war. (3) They attack Pakistan in a way that upsets the populace beyond what the government can control. This builds massive support for Al Qaeda type groups and Pakistan withdraws what little support it is now giving.
Jobs
Jobs will increase in areas of alternative energy production, wind and solar and utility lines to move the energy to the cities. Public sector jobs and construction jobs increase where the government pays for it, i.e. roads and bridges, as the government will try to stimulate the economy. Oil jobs will decrease as the companies downsize because of the punitive taxes. Small business jobs will decrease because people are less likely to risk capital with more risk and less gains. Depending on the success of the bank bailout, capital will either be tight or non-existent. The low-interest loans that fueled the housing bubble and dot.com bubbles will dry up.
Interest Rates
It is possible that government will face higher costs on the debt. This will decrease the amount the government can spend on other things.
Housing
The democrats will try to get the banks to reduce the value of the loans to the poor - either through interest rate reductions or principal owed. This will reduce the amount the banks will be able to loan to other people.
Energy
(1) There will be no new oil drilling in Alaska or off-the coasts.
(2) There will be no new nuclear power plants built.
(3) There will be no new coal plants built.
Oil companies, hit buy rising taxes, will produce less domestically, thus increasing dependence on foreign oil. This will stunt the economy as everything the economy begins to grow the price of to oil will increase.
Travel
To prevent global warming and to reduce oil imports, the government will re-instate the 55 MPH speed limit.
They will implement a $1 per gallon increase in gasoline taxes. They money will go to support public transportation and to reduce usage.
Health Care
There will be a battle between full socialized medicine and Obama health care plan. Health care costs increase as more people enter the system and demand better care than they currently are getting. A few years after implementation, health care rationing begins. Doctor shortages begin has less American enter the medical care system and less foreign doctors want to come to the U.S..
Military.
Possible scenarios
(1) Obama goes with his original promises and pulls all the troops out within a couple of months. Kurds declared Independence. Sunni and Shite factions fight for control of territory. Possible outcomes: (1) Iraq split into 3 section as proposed by Joe Biden (2) Iraq turns into a Lebanon with some power sharing and fighting breaking out every so often (3) Iraq turns to theocracy, akin Taliban or Iran. (4) Iraq turns into a strong central government, akin Saddam Hussein, (5) Baghdad turns into a strong governable city, while outlying regions turn into chaos, akin Afghanistan.
(2) Obama retains the current policy.
(3) Obama tries to prove he can get Osama Bin Laden and orders massive invasion into the Afghanistan. Possible scenarios (1) They destroy the Taliban and Al Qaeda (2) They face massive resistant, akin Soviet Union, and we get bogged down in a Vietnam style war. (3) They attack Pakistan in a way that upsets the populace beyond what the government can control. This builds massive support for Al Qaeda type groups and Pakistan withdraws what little support it is now giving.
Jobs
Jobs will increase in areas of alternative energy production, wind and solar and utility lines to move the energy to the cities. Public sector jobs and construction jobs increase where the government pays for it, i.e. roads and bridges, as the government will try to stimulate the economy. Oil jobs will decrease as the companies downsize because of the punitive taxes. Small business jobs will decrease because people are less likely to risk capital with more risk and less gains. Depending on the success of the bank bailout, capital will either be tight or non-existent. The low-interest loans that fueled the housing bubble and dot.com bubbles will dry up.
Interest Rates
It is possible that government will face higher costs on the debt. This will decrease the amount the government can spend on other things.
Housing
The democrats will try to get the banks to reduce the value of the loans to the poor - either through interest rate reductions or principal owed. This will reduce the amount the banks will be able to loan to other people.
Saturday Night Live
f you missed it last night, it had some real funny moments. The opening was extremely funny. Of course they continue to play Palin as a dummy, but they also did a good job on Biden and even Ifill.
What surprised me was the skit on Pelosi,Barney Frank and the banking crisis. A good skit.
Weekend update was weak until the end..
What surprised me was the skit on Pelosi,Barney Frank and the banking crisis. A good skit.
Weekend update was weak until the end..
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